Probability in Poker

Here is a simple trick for deciding if you should draw or not in Texas Hold’em Poker. The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. Simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold AD 8D and the flop comes QH 9D 4D. You have a possible flush draw. There are more thirteen diamonds in the deck and you are looking at four of them now, the two in your hand, and the two on the community board. That leaves nine diamonds left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.

The trick to figuring out the approximate % chance of getting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this situation that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply it by times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate % of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%, pretty close heh!)

Now let's say for example that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four Eights and four Kings). Eight outs with two cards to come will give you sixteen outs. Multiply by times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.

A very important thing remember is that the % stated is NOT the percentage of time that you will win the hand, merely it's only the percentage of the times that you will hit the hand you are drawing to. You may get your hand and still lose. But still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good starting step on the road to being a better poker player.